September 11 and Rosh Hashanah: Does the combination of the dates increase the risk of terrorist attacks?

There are dates that go far beyond a date on the calendar, and September 11 is undoubtedly one of them. Twenty-five years after the al-Qaeda attack on the United States, the date remains a central symbol in the history of global jihad. This year, an unusual combination is added to this: with sunset on September 11, the Jewish New Year begins. Does this combination increase the chance that a terrorist organization will attempt to carry out an attack on this particular date? There is no definitive answer to this, and the date itself certainly should not be seen as an intelligence warning, but the very possibility requires in-depth discussion.

September 11: Jihadist icon alive and kicking

September 11 was never another ordinary attack. For years, it was seen as an extraordinary achievement and an event that changed the face of the struggle between the West and global jihad. In examining the issue with Middle East scholar Prof. Amaziah Baram – a member of the Forum for Disaster Prevention – I asked eight key questions, and the answers shed light on the mindset of terrorist organizations:

• Is September 11 still significant for global jihad?
  Yes, absolutely. Success of this magnitude is very rare for them, they continue to celebrate it and promise to repeat it.
• Does the proximity to Rosh Hashana add symbolic meaning?
  Although an event of this type in such close proximity has never happened before, while the main reason for the attack on October 7 was the distinction that the IDF was sending half of its soldiers home on the eve of a holiday, this time the motive may be entirely symbolic: to strike them on their holiday.
• Do terrorist organizations use symbolic dates?
  Yes, absolutely, although most of the time it's their memorial days and not our holidays. However, following the events of October 7 and Yom Kippur, the dynamic could change so that they choose a holy day for us.
• Should the symbolism of the date be considered a consideration in risk assessment, even without an intelligence warning?
  According to Prof. Baram, the answer is yes. Although there is no solid historical trail to rely on and it is an assessment or guess, since until now the system has only acted towards their memorial days and done the opposite on our holidays, the approach must change. Until now, he said, the security establishment has relied on the assumption that religious organizations would not choose a holy day for Judaism to operate, an assumption that now requires a complete rethink.
• What would turn a theoretical possibility into a real risk?
  Indications are always present in the field, but the main difficulty is distinguishing between "white noise" and a relevant and real clue. The professional recommendation in such a situation is to increase the sensitivity of the system a few days before and after the date.

Systemic readiness and the AFR challenge

Beyond the symbolic analysis, the question arises whether the Israeli home front and rescue channels are familiar with and prepared for extreme scenarios of a mass casualty event (MCA), as presented by Disaster Prevention Forum member Mr. Ron Yermai:

• Is Israel prepared for the Afar?
  Prof. Baram notes that although this issue is not in his direct professional field, from his personal experience he estimates that the system is not adequately prepared for events of an extreme magnitude such as a severe earthquake or a massive missile attack combined with chemical, biological or nuclear warheads. In this context, he recalls the days before the Gulf War in 1991, when Saddam Hussein demanded that his nuclear experts incorporate crushed radioactive material into the missile warheads; although the experts warned that the soldiers who would deal with this would die in agony within a day, his response was to provide new soldiers and in the end the plan was shelved only because he realized that Israel's response would be nuclear.
• Does the duty of preparedness require practice even without forecast or warning?
  Although this is not his official field, Baram's pure logic and extensive military experience (starting from the Sinai War as a tank gunner, through the Six-Day War, the War of Attrition, Yom Kippur as a reserve company commander and battalion commander, and up to Lebanon 1982) lead to an unequivocal conclusion: drills, drills, and more drills are the only condition for maintaining competence.
• Is there any operational significance to the proximity between September 11 and Rosh Hashanah?
  There is, of course, no absolute certainty about the enemy's intentions. But the main advice is to proactively increase the level of surveillance and alertness. The cost of such a step is incomparably lower than a preventable disaster, and the investment is definitely worth it.

Personal summary

There is no place to panic or live under a constant sense of fear, but we must exercise maximum vigilance and not wait for the next disaster. I fully agree with Prof. Baram's words and believe that a profound change in perception is required, including the cancellation of concentrated holiday and Shabbat vacations in the IDF. We have had our fill of painful historical surprises, and therefore it is always better to prepare in advance and verify our readiness before reality hits us again.

what do you think?