(haipo) – Commentary - In recent days, as a direct result of the incredible achievements of the war, the State of Israel is going through and will continue to go through changes that are beginning to re-dictate the rules of the political game. At the center of the change this week are two key figures: Benjamin Netanyahu and Gideon Sa'ar. While Sa'ar is gradually returning to the coalition after a noisy break with the Likud and Netanyahu, the big question is why Netanyahu needs him right now. The matter is related to wider changes in the political, economic and political arena of Israel and also to the deal for the return of the abductees.
Gideon Sa'ar's political crisis: a necessary move for survival
Gideon Sa'ar left the Likud with a slam of the door and founded the Tikva New Hope party, which later merged with the state right, but today Sa'ar is struggling to maintain his position in the polls, and his political future is in doubt.
Sa'ar's arrival in the government without a prior agreement on a position looks like a move of political survival. Sa'ar understands very well that if he does not join the coalition now, he may not get another chance to influence the national agenda. But what is more interesting is why Netanyahu, the experienced leader, needs him.
Why is Netanyahu pulling Sa'ar back into the coalition?
Netanyahu, like any experienced political leader, does not act out of personal interests alone. In the current situation, Israel is on the verge of a large-scale political settlement in the Middle East. Netanyahu's political goal is clear: to lead to an agreement that will include Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon after the elimination of Hezbollah. Building a stable and "sane" coalition, which can face the political and international challenges, is an essential goal for him.
Our neighbors in the Arab world, as well as our partners in the USA and Europe, see the political move and this is a signal for them, that the military campaign is nearing its end, after a long and unbearably difficult year, which has exhausted most of the players in the Middle East.
Netanyahu's current coalition: an obstacle to a political agreement
Netanyahu's current coalition consists of political partners such as Itamar Ben Gabir and Bezalel Smotrich, who take a hawkish and militant political line. These partners are an obstacle to any attempt to reach a political settlement. Smotrich and Ben Gvir hold rigid positions, which conflict with Netanyahu's political ambitions, especially when it comes to the return of prisoners and settlements with the Palestinians and the Arab world. Statements such as the renewal of settlements in the Gaza Strip and a defiant ascent to the Temple Mount, are actions that constitute a "red sheet" in front of the potential partners in the Arab world, including the moderates who are interested in settling with Israel.
Therefore, in order to free himself from the political pressure they exert, Netanyahu must expand the coalition and include moderate figures, with a more rational political line of thinking, such as Sa'ar.
The need for political concessions and their political consequences
A political agreement in the Middle East, especially one that includes the release of hostages and possibly also agreements with Hamas and its successors in Gaza, will require Israel to make painful concessions. One of the significant concessions that may be on the agenda is the release of thousands of terrorists. In the current situation, with a government made up of extreme militant elements, it is difficult to see a situation where such a concession goes peacefully. Therefore, Netanyahu needs new, more moderate partners who can support him in his political moves.
The difficult economic situation: pressure to stop the war and reach an agreement
The long war and the heavy expenses that Israel incurs as a result put additional pressure on Netanyahu to reach a settlement. The astronomical costs of the war reach about a billion shekels a day, amounts that were not planned in the budget. Stopping the war can lead to economic stabilization, the opening of new markets and cooperation with the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia, which will ease the economic situation and perhaps even catapult it to achievements that did not exist before the war.
Building a stable coalition: Sa'ar is only the first on the way
Sa'ar's entry into the coalition can only be the first step in a broader change of the government structure. Netanyahu may continue to court other factions in the Knesset, with the aim of expanding his support base and building a stable coalition that can lead to a wide-ranging political agreement. This is a complex move, but Netanyahu understands very well that in the end, the one who controls the coalition is the one who will dictate the political agenda.
Political freedom of action: Netanyahu wants to free himself from right-wing pressures
Netanyahu, like any leader, does not like to be subjected to incessant political pressures. The current situation, in which Ben Gvir and Smotrich threaten the stability of the coalition, does not allow Netanyahu political freedom of action. The introduction of moderate figures such as Sa'ar and others will allow Netanyahu a wider room for maneuver, in which he will be able to act in a more relaxed manner to reach political settlements and win significant achievements in the Middle East.
The political direction: Netanyahu understands that the agreement is inevitable
The whole world, and especially the United States, is pressuring Israel to reach a political settlement that will bring an end to the fighting and the return of the prisoners. The Americans are pressing to end the campaign before the US elections, which will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Netanyahu understands that this agreement is inevitable, and he is already working to prepare the ground for the political moves to come. Bringing Sa'ar into the government is only the first step in Netanyahu's complex journey towards arrangements that will affect the State of Israel for many years to come.
This is Sarah who needs Saar as a duster
The fact that Saar lives in Tel Aviv and not in Hebron, that he is secular and non-religious, does not make him more "moderate" than Ben Gabvir and Smotritz in the issues raised here.
Stigmas and empty slogans - when will we get rid of them?
He was added to the government to break the cohesion of the opposition, which at best has no possibility of establishing a Zionist government.
how naive you are