(commentary) - The Middle East is undergoing a significant upheaval these days, as the map of regional and international interests is constantly changing. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, dramatically affects many players in the arena. The power struggles, in which Israel, Iran, the USA, Lebanon and the Palestinian factions are involved, are taking sharp turns, creating a new reality on the ground.
בHezbollah is looking for a ceasefire and is ready to withdraw from southern Lebanon
After the elimination of Nasrallah and the continuation of the fighting, the terrorist organization Hezbollah is trying to hold on to the remnants of power it has left, but at the same time is looking for a ceasefire. The organization realizes that the Israeli threat is becoming unbearable, and the pressure on its strongholds in southern Lebanon pushes it to retreat beyond the litany. This withdrawal may be the first step in the disintegration of Hezbollah as an organized force and return to its role as a guerilla only, which will make it easier for the Western countries to achieve a settlement.
Hamas is interested in an arrangement that will lead to the release of prisoners and the renewal of its forces
At the same time, Hamas, which is in an ongoing conflict with Israel, aims to take advantage of the international arena to obtain an arrangement for the release of approximately 5000 Palestinian prisoners. This, while hoping to restore his strength for the years to come. The organization understands that a political settlement may be an essential opportunity for it to re-strengthen and organize itself for the coming decades.
Iran: the preservation of power and the influence of the Islamic revolution
Iran, which is a major factor in the region, does not intend to give up its influence on Hezbollah and Hamas. Even after the elimination of Nasrallah, Iran will continue to preserve the remnants of the organizations and maintain its main interest - The spread of the Islamic revolution and influence in the Middle East. At the same time, it will try to deal with the military and economic pressures exerted by Israel.
Lebanon after the elimination of Nasrallah: hope for liberation from Hezbollah's influence
For Lebanon itself, freedom from Hezbollah's influence may be welcome. Under Nasrallah, the country was dragged into severe conflicts with Israel, which caused significant destruction and economic impoverishment. Now, with his elimination, there is hope that Israel, with the encouragement of the Western countries, will succeed in weakening the organization, which may lead to regional stability and international aid in the reconstruction of Lebanon.
The US wants to avoid a regional war and establish its position
The US, for its part, strives to avoid a wide regional war, and tries to preserve its role as the leader of the international order in the Middle East. Through its support for Israel, it strives to preserve the stability of the region, secure oil prices, and establish its alliance with Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. All this while Aspiration to promote a political settlement with the Palestinians.
Israel: achieving military and political goals while taking advantage of the pressure on Iran
Israel's goals in the current struggle include eliminating Hezbollah as an organized military force and returning it to guerrilla status. Alongside this, Israel seeks to obtain the release of all the abductees and make Iran a central focus of international pressure. Israel intends to combine military and economic pressure on Iran, including damaging the oil infrastructure and deepening the fight over nuclear issues, in order to weaken its influence in the region.
The schedules and the context for the US elections
As far as the timetables are concerned, Israel aims to end the war within 10 days, in order to ensure a quick political settlement, this in light of the upcoming elections in the USA. Beyond that, the security arrangements may last longer and become a daily routine.
Who determines where we continue from this point
Regarding the question of what happens when there is a conflict between interests, the obvious conclusion is that Those in power have supremacy in realizing their interests. After the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the status of forces in the Middle East arena changed.
The United States remains the central and determining factor, with Israel placed second in terms of power and influence, followed by Iran, which leads the Shia axis at the regional level. Lebanon and Saudi Arabia are in fourth place in terms of influence, while Hamas is fifth. Hezbollah, which used to be a major force, is now in last place in the chain of influential factors, following the damage to its leadership and infrastructure.
At the end of the day, the fight is about ways of access. The Western countries, led by the USA, have an interest in maintaining a clean passage to Europe from the East - that is, the Suez Canal and a land route. The Houthis, an offshoot of Iran, close the entrance to the Red Sea, and therefore the USA has a leading interest in the Saudi-Jordan-Israel agreement and the preservation of the land route . On the other hand, the China-Iran axis is trying with all their might to prevent this. Therefore the struggle is far from over and the last words will probably never be said (it's an ancient struggle)