7/10 – Crossroads • Chapter 1 • Black Swan

introduction

On October 7, 2023, the greatest disaster in the history of the State of Israel and the Jewish people since the Holocaust occurred. We are still living in the expanding shock waves of this disaster, and we feel them every day. And yet, despite the magnitude of the disaster, it can be a positive turning point for the course of our lives here.

This disaster showed how fragile we are. He also showed how far we are from the image we painted for ourselves, and that our neighbors and allies also believed in it. And yet... Is it possible to leverage the disaster to build a better and stronger Israel than it was on the eve of the disaster?

We are at a critical crossroads. There is indeed a path that leads to recovery. But if we continue to follow the path we have followed so far, we will arrive For sure to the destruction of a third house.

"Black Swan"

Until the 17th century, the western world did not know about the existence of black swans. Then, to the surprise of the Europeans, black swans were discovered in newly settled Australia.

Since then, the term "black swan" has been used to describe an unexpected and mind-altering phenomenon. The first to use this concept were the philosophers David Hume in the 18th century, and John Stuart Mill in the 19th century. In the 21st century, Nasim Taleb, a risk management expert, developed his "Black Swan" theory.

The theory refers to the enormous impact of unusual events that are difficult to predict, but can be assumed with high certainty to happen. Taleb focuses mainly on the field of international economics, but his theory also applies to other areas of life. Taleb recommends treating the possibility of a "black swan" in a certain area as a certainty, and being prepared to deal with it.

In 2008, the world stock market collapsed in its own "black swan". At the same time, the "Universe" hedge fund, of which Talev was an advisor, produced a 65% return. Taleb's theory brought results. A "black swan" represents what mathematicians call a "singular point". It interrupts the sequence of events that preceded it, disrupting the linearity of their development.

October 7th was a "black swan"!

As we will see later, the processes that the State of Israel went through in the last decades were destructive. The continuation of these processes would certainly lead to the emptying of Israeli democracy, to a military collapse, to the loss of the state's ability to defend itself, to a moral and economic collapse, and ultimately to the destruction of a third house.

The appearance of a "black swan" at this point in time can allow the State of Israel to change direction and embark on a path of rehabilitation and recovery

The reason is that October 7 brought millions of Israelis to disillusionment and recognition of the profound failure of almost all the processes Israel has undergone in recent years, and almost every aspect of the conduct of the Israeli government.

This disillusionment did not escape a large part of those who voted for the current coalition in recent years. This is a development that can lead to the required correction.

The failures and dangerous processes that the State of Israel has gone through in recent decades.

We will begin this series of articles by listing the failures and dangerous processes that accompanied Israel in the years before October 7, 2023. The continuation of almost every one of these alone was enough to bring Israel to the destruction of a third house. Due to the length of the series of failures, it will take some patience to list them.

We will list here the multiple failures, not necessarily in the order of their importance, since they are all critical. When we finish, we will try to figure out how to get out of the "black swan" of October 7 on a path of recovery and growth.

Fallacy #1 – the building of military power

October 7th revealed an amazing fact - the IDF was not built correctly in the face of the threats to the State of Israel.

Although these threats could have been foreseen in advance, it turns out that the IDF, with the existing SDF, has difficulty defending Israel and fighting on several fronts for a long time. The regular force is much smaller than necessary, and likewise the reserve force.

The concept of a "small and smart army" that ruled the Kippa for years, collapsed.

Suddenly we discovered that full-scale combat, even on only two fronts, is more than the IDF is capable of containing. Some did not recognize this and talked about opening a front in the north as early as October 2023. Everyone very quickly returned to the ground of reality.

Israel has built a multi-layered defense system, of which the "Iron Dome" is the bottom layer of defense. The system proved to be a defensive success. Its main purpose was to provide breathing space for strategic decisions of attack and prevention. But the system turned from an important tool into an end in itself, when a hesitant and procrastinating political leadership took advantage of it precisely to avoid making critical decisions.

The strangulation ring that Iran patiently built around Israel was on the right track as far as it was concerned. The one who disrupted the calculations of the Iranians was Hamas which launched its own campaign, preventing the coordination and the "unification of the fronts". If Hamas had not deviated from the Iranian front, it is possible that Israel would have collapsed in a combined attack on several fronts.

Even so, we were not far from such a situation. It seems that only the determined intervention of President Biden prevented this possibility. In addition to all of this, it also turned out that the civilian presence in Judea and Samaria fascinates a huge part of the IDF. On the morning of October 7, for example, two battalions were stationed in front of the Gaza Strip, and 32 battalions in Judea and Samaria.

How could it be that we needed October 7th to understand that the IDF's power structure was fundamentally flawed? Where were the chiefs of staff, defense ministers and prime ministers, in whose hands national security is entrusted, all these years?
unclear!

Fallacy #2 – the "bride"

One of the strategic concepts that underpinned the policy of the State of Israel in recent years is "containment" - the intensification of terrorism on our borders can be contained. All one has to do is tolerate some missiles and rockets, "mow the grass every now and then" and expect that our enemies will be deterred by this behavior.

Of course it didn't happen!

Since the Second Lebanon War (2006), and the subsequent rise of Hamas to power in the Gaza Strip, Israel has refrained from dealing effectively with the monsters growing on its borders, not to mention its failed handling of Iran.

Fallacy #3 – "Hamas is an asset"

The perception, among some of the decision makers, was that "Hamas is an asset". Today it sounds crazy, but the words were explicitly said by people like Netanyahu and Smotrich.

In order to improve this "asset", the Palestinian Authority, which operated in security cooperation with Israel, was trampled. The idea was that in order to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and to allow the creeping annexation of the territories of Judea and Samaria, it is better:

1. To carry out "divide and rule" - it is good for us to maintain a bloody conflict between the PA and Hamas.
2. "Hamas is an asset" - it is good to keep Hamas. Because it is such an extreme body that no factor in the sane world will ever support it. And besides, he is deterred anyway.

It is doubtful that there was any logic in the first assumption, but the second assumption was a colossal strategic failure, for which we paid a terrible price on October 7. In practice, today it seems that this failed strategy actually greatly promoted the vision of the Palestinian state.