(haipo) - The struggle of interests in the Middle East: Israel is trying to lure Iran and Hezbollah into launching a large-scale attack, with a target That Israel will be the one to respond with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and a counterattack on Iran's nuclear facilities as well as in the destruction of strategic assets of Iran and Lebanon. A broad attack that will come from Iran and Lebanon will allow Israel to form a coalition against Iranian aggression and present Israel as on the defensive.
The Israeli interest in the north of the country
The State of Israel is facing a significant security challenge in the north of the country. Israel's main interest is to remove the threat of Hezbollah, which has become Iran's greatest force among its affiliates in the Middle East. The well-armed organization is a direct threat to Israel's security, especially after the events on October 7. Israel recognizes the need to curb Hezbollah and weaken its military capabilities, while maintaining military superiority in the north of the country.
Iranian interest
Iran strives to preserve Hezbollah as a force that gives it enormous influence in the Middle East. Hezbollah is a central tool in the Iranian strategy to achieve regional hegemony. Iran's direct attack on Israel indicates its desire to exert pressure and maintain its power through Hezbollah. Iran's interest is to reduce the military pressure and bring about a ceasefire while maintaining the power of Hezbollah as a threatening force in the north.
The campaign in Gaza resulted in the fact that the military arm of Hamas was actually destroyed and ceased to function as a force that threatens Israel. Iran has invested many resources in building power in Gaza, for many years, and is now afraid of losing Hezbollah as a significant force in Lebanon, which will reduce its hold on the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea and its influence on the strategic balance in the entire Middle East.
Hezbollah's interest
Hezbollah, for its part, is looking to present itself as the winner in the confrontation with Israel. His goal is to bring about a ceasefire that will preserve his image as a victorious force, while he continues to threaten Israel from the north. After the events on October 7, Hezbollah is trying to take advantage of the situation and intensify the threat to Israel, relying on Iranian support.
American interest
The United States consistently supports Israel. The former President of the United States, Richard Nixon, stated that the cost of American aid to Israel is lower than the cost of one aircraft carrier, while the return is receiving a very powerful ally in the Middle East. In addition, the American interest includes maintaining peace in the region in preparation for the upcoming elections.
The assassinations and the Israeli response
The assassinations of Hamas leaders, such as Haniya and Shokur, are a catalyst for advancing Israeli interests. Following a direct or indirect Iranian response, Israel must remove the Iranian nuclear threat and will therefore focus on direct actions on Iranian soil. Nasrallah's direct threats increase the tension, and Israel is acting with cold calculation to advance Nasrallah's elimination, while massively damaging Hezbollah's infrastructure and in Lebanon, with the aim of causing a relatively short war.
The general analysis - Israel tempts Iran to respond
When analyzing the interests of the parties involved, it can be seen that Israel is the one initiating strategic moves in the north of the country and the Middle East, while Iran and Nasrallah are being dragged into a reaction and will actually play into Israel's hands. This is with the understanding that an offensive and measured action will lead to Israeli military superiority in the short and medium term, but difficult and painful days are ahead of us to achieve the overarching goals of security and peace for Israel.
In conclusion
In the struggle of interests in the north of the country in particular and the Middle East in general, each side works to advance its strategic goals. Israel seeks to remove the Hezbollah threat, Iran seeks to preserve its regional power through Hezbollah, Hezbollah tries to take advantage of the situation to intensify the threat to Israel, and the United States supports Israel and seeks to maintain stability in the region ahead of the upcoming elections. The moves taking place now indicate a period of high tension, but also Israeli determination to advance its national security in any possible way.
It's interesting that until a week ago Israel was the one "being dragged" and in the Panic studios, debilitating commentators appeared one after another to say that she is the puppet of the ID. And suddenly 2 or 3 initiatives that Israel carries out or not, make a twist in the plot and silence those debilitating commentators (at least for this week) and become Israel to dominate the game and its captains to be calculated like playing chess.
Somehow I feel that this story, which I think is fundamentally simpler and is fundamentally related to hatred of religion - there really is no end and words like peace and reconciliation, as our ancestors already learned the hard way, will always be temporary until the next round.