The abductee deal will take place at the end of the day, because it is in the overall interest of Israel, Hamas, the US and the countries of the region led by Saudi Arabia.
Threats to freeze arms shipments - from Biden's office
This is a well-known and well-worn tactic of the US, intended for internal and external needs. The ongoing negotiations for the release of the abductees, which also refer to the future of Gaza, require coordination with the US, to the point of possible damage to Israeli interests.
If so, what is the Israeli interest in Rafah?
The last bastion in the Gaza Strip where several battalions remain functioning as a military framework, is Rafah. Completing the mission of Mitut Hamas is the only guarantee for turning the Gaza Strip into a demilitarized zone and creating the possibility of bringing in an entity that will control the Strip. As long as Hamas is armed and functions as a military framework, no other party will be allowed to enter, without a fight.
From the point of view of the Israeli government, the consideration that determines the future of the Strip is simple:
A demilitarized zone, that is, a security consideration only.
Agreeing to a Palestinian state?
Anyone who has studied how a state is declared, according to public international law, knows that the position of the State of Israel on the question of recognizing a Palestinian state is of no importance
The conditions for declaring a state are:
A defined territory, a defined population and control and enforcement mechanisms for internal and international law. The main question that will determine the declaration of the Palestinian state is a majority in the UN.
In light of the above, Israel's position, regarding the declaration of a Palestinian state, does not have much weight and the discussion surrounding this question is, mainly, an internal political one, within Israel.
Expect the continuation of the campaign, from May 2024 onwards:
A. Another round for the release of hostages in the near future. The result of such a round would be a lull in the south. In this scenario, the bulk of the war effort shifts to mitigating the threat of Hezbollah in the north. Resolution 1701, adopted at the UN and which defines the removal of Hezbollah from the borders of the State of Israel, is not a goal that guarantees peace to the people of Israel.
Therefore, several weeks of intense and continuous fighting including damage to the Haifa Bay hinterland and the city of Haifa, are a favorite target for Hezbollah terrorists, whose weapons today are "smarter" and more accurate and in high quantities.
In my estimation, if the conditions I have observed are met, starting at the end of August 2024, the Haifa area will go into a routine of war, for a long period of time.
The dates are requested due to the internal processes in Israel: the IDF will transition from war to war routine. Some commanders, including the Chief of Staff and the heads of the security organizations, such as the Shin Bet and others, will take responsibility and resign from their positions.
The expectation is that Israel will go to the elections at the end of 2024 or at the beginning of 2025.
This article is intended to remind and refresh us residents of Haifa and the region that we may find ourselves at the beginning of a security wave that Haifa and the Gulf will be at the center of.
A quiet Saturday everyone.
There was nothing and there will be nothing in Haifa! In our city it is an island of silence and it will continue to be so!
Hamas, like Fatah, are messengers of Egypt.
One is the good boy and the other is the bad boy.
And so at the same time the Arabs get sympathy and are criticized
And everything is managed from Cairo.
Very reassuring for a backward country
The only way to free the abductees/captives is to simply go in with a German Blitzkrieg ground army and rescue them.
And it is possible that some of them will be killed in the process. There is no such thing as perfect….
And so on the way to eliminate Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
and control Gaza militarily... but politically give them to Abu Mazen who will unite Gaza with Judea and Samaria. Just as Judea and Samaria are relatively normal... so will they be in Gaza.
Really why?
Exciting in the shadow of war
All the best to you, my friend, retired chief Yaakov Borbosk. God bless you
The left needs to stop confusing the mind about the disaster of Oslo and two states and understand that there is no desire for peace with the Jewish state - only its extermination by deception and false legitimacy. The Jewish people should remove from the country those who want to destroy and burn Israel. They have 40 countries get up and go to them. You don't want to live next to us, and we don't want you.
Precise
A lot of nonsense in my opinion.
These are captives and not abductees.
The end of the war will be after the elimination of Hamas wherever they are, the return of the Jewish settlement to the Gaza Strip and the return of the captives.
Oslo 2 will not happen because it is the end of the State of Israel. And the elections at the end of 2026 will mainly deal with this matter.
A very serious fratricidal war could flare up with an attempt to revive the Oslo disaster, at the hands of the sleepy Samal with the encouragement of the US and the nation.
not going to happen!
Don't listen, it's about kidnappers and hostages. Those soldiers there are prisoners
That's why we choose Feiglin 💗
Occupation - deportation - and Jewish settlement in Gaza 🏡🏡🏡