(Live Here - Commentary) - The war in Gaza is nearing the end of its first phase, at the end of which the IDF will declare control of the Strip, release a large part of the reserve soldiers and continue a long and protracted and surgical campaign to eliminate the tunnel infrastructure and locate the abductees.
At this stage, the eyes are directed to the north, when nearly 100 thousand people are evacuated from their homes and the image of victory that will allow their return to their homes is still not clear.
When the Israeli government decided to evacuate settlements, it actually declared that the return would be conditional on a profound change in reality. The settlements on the conflict line stand abandoned. The entire border area has effectively become a security zone within the State of Israel (it's unpleasant to say, but it is a security zone).
This security strip allows the IDF to operate relatively freely in the face of two threats:
The first threat is Hezbollah's shooting, which mainly (but not only) hits empty houses.
The second threat is a scenario of a ground invasion by Hezbollah battalions, an invasion that will encounter prepared soldiers. This security strip allows for a combat arena where Israeli citizens will not circulate between the two sides, which would complicate the situation, from our point of view.
The pressure of the residents of the conflict line in the north on the decision makers (Netanyahu, Gantz and Levi), to allow a safe return to their homes, is likely to mature soon into a significant military move.
Since the IDF has mobilized hundreds of thousands of soldiers in reserve and since the patience of the residents of the conflict line, who are sitting in the hotels, has long since expired and in light of the fact that every day that passes is costing the economy a huge fortune, and in light of the fact that the campaign in Gaza will soon move to the low-intensity surgical phase, then a move to resolve the Hezbollah threat must to ripen in the coming days - probably in mid-January. Both sides understand that.
If so, what are the possible scenarios?
The first scenario, which has a low probability - a defective return 1701
Resolution number 1701 of the UN, which was passed as part of the end code of the Second Lebanon War, is that Hezbollah terrorists are removed from the border.
The decision was realized, with the backing of the UN, and then dissolved, when the terrorists gradually trickled out and rebuilt the strongholds of the terrorist organization along the border between Lebanon and Israel.
At this very moment, efforts are underway around the world to get the Hezbollah terrorists to retreat back to Line 1701, in a way that will prevent an all-out war against Hezbollah. The digging of the terrorists along the line indicates that the persuasive efforts are not really convincing the commanders of the terrorist organization and their senders - the Iranians.
The second scenario - complete destruction of Hezbollah positions, but limited to the area near the Lebanese border
In the second scenario, the IDF moves to the complete destruction from the air of all Hezbollah strongholds and even the settlements from which fire is fired in the direction of Israel, similar to the massive destruction in Gaza. This destruction will require the complete evacuation of the residents of Lebanon within a specified range from the border with Israel. After the evacuation of the residents, anyone walking around the area This will be deadly. After this crushing, a limited or extensive ground operation is also possible, in order to cleanse terrorist nests and infrastructure along the border line with Israel.
If both sides (both together) decide to remain in a campaign close to the border line, it is possible that there will be an intensive campaign without expansion to Haifa, Afula, Hadera, Tel Aviv, Tyre, Sidon and Beirut. This action can remain limited to the area near the border, but one missile that will fly and hit Haifa, may be a reason to expand the campaign to the third scenario.
It depends on the decision of both parties.
The third scenario - a total campaign
The third scenario can come in the blink of an eye, or not at all. In this scenario, both sides take off their gloves, pull out their arsenal of weapons and rain infernal fire on each other and, of course, on us.
The IDF will crush Beirut and cause tremendous damage there. The IDF will try to locate Nasrallah and destroy his bunker by various means. It is also possible to expand the campaign to Iranian centers in Syria and possibly targeted assassinations of individuals in Iran. No target in the Middle East will be protected from Israel's long arm.
Hezbollah, for its part, will open the missile depots (those that will not be destroyed by the IDF) and rain barrages of missiles on the depth of Israel - Haifa, Tel Aviv, Tiberias, Afula and beyond. Hezbollah may also initiate foot attacks across the fence, but here they will have a problem In front of the defense lines of the IDF.
In this scenario, both sides will suffer heavy casualties and much destruction. We in Haifa and the surrounding area are required to prepare, both mentally and physically, to stay in shelters. We are required to prepare to see destroyed apartments and facilities.
In Haifa, proper urban renewal has not been promoted for 20 years, therefore, many residents are without available protection of MMDs in their apartments. Therefore, every resident should sit with himself for a few minutes and plan where he will be located and what he will do (he and his family) in case the third scenario applies. Where will he sleep, what will he eat, what will he drink, how will he communicate with his family... you should prepare the house and the residents of the house for this scenario. Early preparation contributes to family resilience.
Success for all of us!
European glory, and even after
Duke of Montosier
mostly in monasteries.
text carrier and protection
Many calligraphers have acquired
Kudos to Yaron Karmi for an enlightening article, and also thanks to the serious commenters for their learned response.
As a follow-up to this article, I would please request an article with the Home Front Command representative, so that he can give precise instructions and sort out the instructions for the Haifa public, once and for all.
like for instance:
Does someone who lives on the top floor have to enter the MMD,
או
Is it better for him to go down 2 floors and stay in a stairwell?
Thank you
[28.12, 22:17] Avraham: It is a serious and sad reality that the security belt is inside Israel. Indeed the scenarios illustrate reality. And the third scenario, although I think both sides would like to avoid it, I believe it is the most realistic
[28.12, 22:21] Avraham: In my opinion, the most realistic. And to my understanding, the authorities are not preparing the citizens for the serious scenario, those who have status are in a good situation in terms of arrival time at the MMD, but not immune to direct harm. Those who have a shelter are safer, but arrival time is problematic.
In any case, each family should prepare a bag with clothes, sleeping bags, flashlights, and other equipment, along with food, drink, and more.
Recapture a security zone in Lebanon. It is better that they deal with it, and not in our settlements.\
Only this time not to leave anything in it, so that they understand that if they want to destroy us they will destroy themselves.
It's the same in Gaza. This is the only guarantee to throw out the terrorists' nests and with them the population that supported and helped them.
I am sitting in my house on Mount Carmel. The news surrounds me, like everyone else. The mood is not good, the horizon looks gloomy, not promising. Our hearts go out to the thousands of families who lost loved ones following the terrible failure of October 7th.
Thoughts move north. "What will happen if the madman from the north decides to target Haifa?" My house, like many of the houses in Haifa that were built decades ago, is not protected. There is no shelter, no MMD. Recalls the Second Lebanon War. In 2006, the Haifa area was hit over the course of 34 days by about 300 missiles and rockets fired from Lebanon, 14 of the city's residents were killed, 23 were injured and dozens of houses were destroyed. Haifa was not prepared for this missile attack.
Following the war, the municipality of Haifa received billions of NIS from the Olmert government for the rehabilitation and protection of its institutions, schools, residential buildings and for the establishment of appropriate infrastructure to provide an optimal response of the municipal system and public space in preparation for the next campaign, when tens of thousands of missiles would be directed at us from Lebanon and it was clear that sooner or later it would arrive.
But at the end of the war, the comfortable and warm conception settled in the hearts of our leaders that Hezbollah is deterred and therefore the money can be spent and dissolved and taken in favor of "much more important and significant" issues that generate visibility and generate publicity.
And so, when the billions that came from Jerusalem began to fill the city's coffers, a plan was created to use the money for projects with high visibility but questionable effectiveness, to glorify the name of the mayor and Francia while throwing sand in the eyes of the residents.
Instead of protecting the public institutions in the city, a lot of money was directed to a massive thickening of urban gardening to create a greener city with greater visibility.
Instead of protecting the schools in the city - where our children study, many millions were invested in an attempt to restore and revive the downtown, even at the cost of poor planning and ignoring the basic principles of urban architecture.
Instead of protecting the residents' homes, billions were invested in the construction of the matron. A kind of hybrid creation, which mostly serves the residents of the Kiryat and not the residents of Haifa, but the visibility is indeed great, literally finger-licking.
Instead of preparing the urban system, through meticulous headquarters work, to deal with the impending danger, the cable car was built. Boxes in the air that are like no other in the whole country, and it also does not mostly serve the residents of Haifa, but here we are already talking about a visibility that borders on megalomania, go out and calculate how much respect and value it brings us.
Instead of doing deep thinking with the establishment of dedicated teams and an appropriate infrastructure to provide an optimal response in times of war, it was decided to cover the roof of the "Sami Ofer" stadium with gold, at an opportunity cost of only a few tens of millions of shekels and for the glory of the Haifa municipality and its leader.
And so following the disastrous concept that our mayor adopted that Hezbollah is deterred and will be fine, a concept that helped him channel billions into megalomaniac projects of little value and benefit, without the existence of in-depth thinking and rigorous headquarters work, without the establishment of dedicated teams and without the creation of an appropriate infrastructure to provide an optimal response from the municipal system and public space To deal with massive destruction, many casualties, damage to vital infrastructures and system collapse.
We are standing at the beginning of a large, powerful and accurate campaign tens of times more than what we experienced in 2006. A campaign in which the experts predict the launch of thousands of missiles a day into the Haifa area, with close to 200 missiles succeeding in penetrating the protection layers of the various systems every day! And all this when most of the urban public institutions are not protected, most of the educational institutions where our children study are not protected, most of the residential apartments - especially in the western neighborhoods of the city - remain exposed and without an adequate response to the threat of missiles. The imprisoned neighborhoods remained imprisoned without the possibility of escape to the west during a disaster (despite the firm call of the State Comptroller after the fire in Carmel), the Carmel Tunnels and the Carmelite Tunnel were not converted and were not prepared to receive thousands of civilians during massive bombings and no outline was built that creates an alternative to the vital infrastructures that would be damaged and rendered useless. The lack of action, the neglect and disregard for the lives of the residents screams to the sky.
The residents of Haifa were simply abandoned. Yes, there is no other definition. Criminally abandoned since 2006 by an irresponsible, zigzagging, incompetent and unreliable mayor.
I'm turning to you from the bottom of my anxious, troubled, worried heart - don't give a hand to the plot of someone who didn't care at the time, to return to the city hall building. Don't allow the architect of the Haifa defense failure that has been going on for 17 years - Yona Yahav - to sit down in the decision-making chair again. Haifa should be a place of example and parable that does not reward those who screw up, those who are elevated in their positions, those who neglect their residents, those who do not know what public responsibility is.
A mostly correct analysis of the situation in the north and the possible scenarios
The networks show the vulnerability in the northern settlements every day. There are many injuries. Iron Dome etc. are unable to neutralize them. This is the reason settlements were evacuated and not necessarily an intrusion. The understanding that because of the escape from the previous security zone, Hezbollah has the possibility to shoot with ease a low fire trajectory that the Iron Dome will not be neutralized and along with it drones. Drones and exploding terrorist balloons are a threat that requires the destruction of everything that crosses the border, an expensive and exhausting occupation. This is the goal: a war of attrition that will establish a situation in which dozens of settlements have been abandoned because of a security situation that will temporarily become permanent. The employment of the IDF in exhaustion - sporadic shooting, occasional rocket fire when it feels like it, here and there infiltrations and attempted murders and kidnappings, smuggling of illegal weapons and drugs, attempts to take over outposts. Everything is a symptom of a lack of deterrence and above all a lack of exacting a price from Hezbollah's financiers, which are Qatar and Iran. If there is no harm to Qatar, they will continue to receive dividends as "middlemen" after financing Hamas and the massacre. It is unfathomable the government's failure to reward Qatar for funding terrorism against us. So it's no wonder they shoot from Iraq, Yemen. If we did not clarify the heavy price in Lebanon, we will receive more and more. Seat belt? bad joke
Full control of Gaza? Without it, Gaza, like South Lebanon, will arm itself with supply ships and smuggling tunnels in the absence of an Egyptian eye, as it clearly has been until now - Hania said in Cairo that within half a year, Hamastan will restore all its capabilities in the Strip, you just need to press and threaten the withdrawal of the IDF and any other party will demand "rehabilitation". A sea port through which huge quantities of weapons and explosives will be smuggled.
If the IDF does not announce a full humanitarian evacuation of Gaza + control as a closed military base = we have lost the war and the IDF will be crushed in more rounds + cannot achieve deterrence and put the south. Leaving Gaza and leaving it to any other party is a complete disaster.